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个人理财,一定要懂得多样化

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  个人理财是指客户根据自身生涯规划、财务状况和风险属性,制定理财目标和理财规划,执行理财规划,实现理财目标。那怎你对个人理财有什么规划了?下面是小编为您收集整理的个人理财,一定要懂得多样化,供大家参考!

  个人理财,一定要懂得多样化

  Diversify, Especially If You Don't Know What You Are Doing!

  一定要保持多样化,尤其是在你不知道自己在做什么时!

  In the words of famed e conomist John Maynard Keynes, diversification is insurance against ignorance.

  著名经济学家John Maynard Keynes说过多样化是战胜无知的保证。

  He believed that risk could actually be reduced by holding fewer investments and getting to know them extraordinarily well.

  他相信少做几种投资并且非常了解这些投资真的能降低风险。

  Of course, the man was one of the most brilliant financial minds of the past century so this philosophy isn’t sound policy for most investors, especially if they can’t analyze financial statements or don’t know the difference between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a Dodo.

  当然他是过去一个世纪中最杰出的金融人才之一,所以这种说法对于大多数投资者来说听起来并不是明智的选择,尤其是有些人并不能分析财务报表或不知道道琼斯工业平均指数和Dodo之间差别。

  These days, widespread diversification can be had at a fraction of the cost of what was possible even a few decades ago. With index funds, mutual funds, and dividend reinvestment programs, the frictional expenses of owning shares in hundreds of different companies have largely been eliminated or, at the very least, substantially reduced.

  现在即使只赚到几十年前能赚到的钱数你就能利用日益普遍的多样化的方法。随着指数基金、共同基金和股息再投资计划的兴起,拥有数百家不同公司股份的摩擦费用已经被大大消除了,或者至少大幅下降了。

  This can help protect you against permanent loss by spreading your assets out over enough companies that if one or even a few of them go belly-up, you won’t be harmed.

  这可以保护你免受不可逆的损失,把你的资产分散到足够多的公司中,如果其中一家甚至几家公司破产,你也不会遭受损失。

  In fact, due to a phenomenon is known as the mathematics of diversification, it will probably result in higher overall compounding returns on a risk-adjusted basis.

  其实由于多样化数学现象的存在,很有可能会在风险调整的基础上产生更高的综合复利。

  One thing you want to watch for is correlation. Specifically, you want to look for uncorrelated risks so that your holdings are constantly offsetting each other to even out economic and business cycles.

  你要注意的就是关联问题,具体来说就是你想要找到没有关联的风险,以便你所持的股票总能彼此补偿,在经济和商业周期内持平。

  When I first wrote the predecessor to this piece almost fifteen years ago, I warned that it wasn't enough to own thirty different stocks if half of them consisted of Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp, et cetera, because you may have owned a lot of shares in several different companies but you were not diversified; that a "systematic shock such as massive real estate loan failure could send shockwaves through the banking system, effectively hurting all of your positions", which is precisely what happened during the 2007-2009 collapse.

  差不多在15年前我第一次写下这个方法的上一个版本时就警告过,如果你持有的股票中有一半是美洲银行、摩根大通、富国银行、美国合众银行、五三银行这样的股票的话,那你拥有30家不同的股票都不够,因为你可能在不同的公司拥有大量股份,但并没有做到多样化,而且像大规模房地产贷款失败这样的系统冲击会给整个银行系统带来冲击,实际上你所有的股票都会遭受损失,2007-2009年金融危机期间就发生了这样的事。

  Of course, the stronger firms such as U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Company did just fine despite a period when they had declined 80% on paper peak-to-trough, especially if you reinvested your dividends and were dollar cost averaging into them; a reminder that it's often better to focus on strength first and foremost.

  当然美国合众银行和富国银行这样更强一些的公司,也有过从表面上看从高峰期到低谷期下跌了80%的时期。但尤其是当你要重新投资股利并按购入证券的美元价格平均计算时,它们确实是不错的选择。还要提醒你一下,最好首要关注一下公司实力。

  Behavioral economics, on the other hand, has proven most people are emotionally incapable of focusing on the underlying business, instead of panicking and liquidating at the least opportune moment.

  而另一方面,行为经济学证明,在情感上,大多数人很难做到只关注基础业务而不在最不合适时慌张抛售。

  But beside all these, just remember: Stick to Stocks Within Your "Circle of Competence"

  但除了这些之外,你只需记得:坚持买你“能力范围内”的股票。

  In investing, as in life, success is just as much about avoiding mistakes as it is about making intelligent decisions.

  投资就像生活一样,成功在于尽可能避免犯错,也在于做出明智的决定。

  If you are a scientist who works at Pfizer, you are going to have a very strong competitive advantage in determining the relative attractiveness of pharmaceutical stocks compared to someone who works in the oil sector.

  如果你是辉瑞公司的一名科学家,在确定制药股票的相对吸引力方面你就要比石油行业的人拥有很强的竞争优势。

  Likewise, a person in the oil sector is going to probably have a much bigger advantage over you in understanding the oil majors than you are.

  同样,石油行业的人在对大型石油公司的了解上就比你有更大的优势。

  Peter Lynch was a big proponent of the “invest in what you know” philosophy.

  Peter Lynch就非常支持“投资你所了解的行业”这一说法。

  In fact, many of his most successful investments were a result of following his wife and teenage kids around the shopping mall or driving through town eating Dunkin’ Doughnuts.

  其实他最成功的一些投资都是受了妻子和商场附近青少年的启发,或开车横穿城市去Dunkin’ Doughnuts吃饭时产生的。

  There is a legendary story in old-school value investing circles about a man who became such an expert in American water companies that he literally knew the profit in a tub full of bathwater or the average toilet flush, building a fortune by trading a specific stock.

  老派价值投资法中有一个传奇的故事,说的是一个人在美国自来水公司成为了专家,毫不夸张地说他能知道装满水的浴缸或普通马桶刷的利润,他通过交易一只特定的股票就赚了一大笔钱。

  One caveat: You must be honest with yourself. Just because you worked the counter at Chicken Mary's as a teenager doesn't mean you are automatically going to have an advantage when analyzing a poultry company like Tyson Chicken.

  警告:你必须要对自己诚实。仅仅是十多岁时在Chicken Mary's站过柜台并不意味着在分析Tyson Chicken这样的家禽公司时你就有优势了。

  A good test is to ask yourself if you know enough about a given industry to take over a business in that field and be successful. If the answer is "yes", you may have found your niche. If not, keep studying.

  一个很好的测试方法就是问问自己是否对某一行业足够了解,能在那个领域接管一家公司还能做得成功。如果答案是肯定的,那你可能发现了商机;如果不行那就继续学习吧。

  通货膨胀让民众和企业损失了什么

  In general, people seem to know that inflation is often not a good thing in an economy. This makes sense, to some degree- inflation refers to rising prices, and rising prices are typically viewed as a bad thing.

  总体来说,人们似乎知道通货膨胀对一个经济体来说通常不是什么好事。这是情理之中的事,在一定程度上,通货膨胀就意味着物价上涨,而物价上涨一般都被视为坏事。

  Technically speaking, however, increases in the aggregate price level need not be particularly problematic if prices of different goods and services rise uniformly, if wages rise in tandem with the price increases, and if nominal interest rates adjust in response to changes in inflation. (In other words, inflation need not reduce the real purchasing power of consumers.)

  从技术上讲,如果所有商品和服务的价格都以统一的幅度上涨,如果工资水平也随着物价一起上涨,并且如果名义利率也跟随通货膨胀进行调整,那综合物价的上涨就不太会是个问题。(换句话说,这种情况下通货膨胀并没有削弱消费者的购买力。)

  There are, however, costs of inflation that are relevant from an economic perspective and cannot be easily avoided.

  不过,从经济学的角度看,通货膨胀还是会带来些很明显的成本,而且这些成本无法轻易避免。

  Menu Costs

  菜单成本

  When prices are constant over long periods of time, firms benefit in that they don't need to worry about changing the prices for their output.

  如果物价在很长一段时间内保持稳定,那么企业是获益的,因为他们不需要改变自己产品的售价。

  When prices change over time, on the other hand, firms would ideally like to change their prices in order to keep pace with the general trends in prices, since this would be the profit-maximizing strategy.

  而如果物价随时间变动了,企业当然就会想跟随总趋势来提高自己产品的售价,毕竟这是能让利润最大化的策略。

  Unfortunately, changing prices is generally not costless, since changing prices requires printing new menus, relabeling items, and so on.

  不幸的是,更改价格通常不是没有成本的,因为要改价格需要重印菜单、重新贴标等等。

  Firms have to decide whether to operate at a price that is not profit-maximizing or incur the menu costs involved in changing prices.

  企业必须决定是继续使用不能使利润最大化的老价格,还是承受更改价格带来的菜单成本。

  Either way, firms bear a very real cost of inflation.

  不管选哪个,企业都需要为通货膨胀承受货真价实的损失。

  Shoeleather Costs

  “皮鞋成本”

  The term shoe leather costs refer to the figurative cost of replacing shoes more often due to the increase in the number of trips to the bank, but shoe leather costs are a very real phenomenon.

  皮鞋成本这个说法是在比喻你由于频繁往返银行磨坏了鞋之后需要付出的置装费,虽然名字是一种比喻,但这个成本却是真真切切存在的。

  Shoeleather costs are not a serious issue in economies with relatively low inflation, but they become very relevant in economies that experience hyperinflation. In these situations, citizens generally prefer to keep their assets as foreign rather than local currency, which also consumes unnecessary time and effort.

  皮鞋成本在通货膨胀较低的经济体中通常不是一个严重的经济问题,但它在那些经历恶性通货膨胀的经济体中就很明显了。在这种情况下,公民们通常更愿意持有外汇而不是本地货币,而这就又要消耗不必要的时间和精力。

  Whereas firms are the ones who directly incur menu costs, shoe leather costs directly impact all holders of currency.

  就像企业会直接承受菜单成本一样,货币的所有持有者则要直接承受皮鞋成本。

  When inflation is present, there is a real cost to holding cash (or holding assets in non-interest bearing deposit accounts), since the cash won't buy as much tomorrow as it could today.

  如果你持有的是现金,或者持有无利息的存款账户,那么当通货膨胀来临的时候你就会承受一些损失,因为你的钱明天能买到的东西已经比今天少了。

  Therefore, citizens have an incentive to keep as little cash on hand as possible, which means that they have to go to the ATM or otherwise transfer money on a very frequent basis.

  因此,民众通常倾向于尽量少持有现金,这意味着他们必须非常频繁地通过ATM机或其他方法来存取金钱。

  Misallocation of Resources

  资源误置

  When inflation occurs and prices of different goods and services rise at different rates, some goods and services become cheaper or more expensive in a relative sense.

  当通货膨胀发生但不同的商品和服务的价格上升幅度却不一样时,这些商品和服务就相对地变得更贵或者更便宜了。

  These relative price distortions, in turn, affect the allocation of resources toward different goods and services in a way that would not happen if relative prices remained stable.

  这种价格上的相对扭曲会影响资源在不同商品和服务上的配置,而这种问题在相对价格稳定的情况下就不会出现。

  Wealth Redistribution

  财富再分配

  Unexpected inflation can serve to redistribute wealth in an economy because not all investments and debt are indexed to inflation.

  意料之外的通货膨胀可以对经济体中的财富进行再分配,因为并不是所有的投资和债务都会跟随通货膨胀一起变动。

  Higher than expected inflation makes the value of debt lower in real terms, but it also makes the real returns on assets lower.

  比预期更高的通货膨胀会让实际债务变低,但也会让资本的实际回报率变低。

  Therefore, unexpected inflation serves to hurt investors and benefit those who have a lot of debt.

  因此,意料之外的通货膨胀会伤害投资者,但对那些负债者却是有利的。

  This is likely not an incentive that policymakers want to create in an economy, so it can be viewed as another cost of inflation.

  这通常不是一个经济体的政策制定者想看到的现象,所以我们也可以把这视为通货膨胀的另一种成本。

  Tax Distortions

  税收扭曲

  In the United States, there are many taxes that do not automatically adjust for inflation.

  在美国,有很多税并不是自动跟随通货膨胀变动的。

  For example, capital gains taxes are calculated based on the absolute increase in the value of an asset, not on the inflation-adjusted value increase.

  比如,资本利得税是按资本的绝对增值来算的,而不是按照根据通货膨胀调整后的价值来算的。

  Therefore, the effective tax rate on capital gains when inflation is present may be much higher than the stated nominal rate.

  因此,当通货膨胀发生的时候,实际的资本利得税率可能比名义上的要高。

  Similarly, inflation increases the effective tax rate paid on interest income.

  同样地,通货膨胀也会提高利息税的实际税率。

  General Inconvenience

  整体上的不便

  Even if prices and wages are flexible enough to adjust well for inflation, inflation still makes comparisons of monetary quantities across years more difficult than they could be.

  即便物价和工资都能灵活地根据通货膨胀进行调整,通货膨胀还是会让对比不同年份的金钱价值变得更困难。

  Given that people and companies would like to fully understand how their wages, assets, and debt evolve over time, the fact that inflation makes it more difficult to do so can be viewed as yet another cost of inflation.

  由于企业与个人都想更好地了解自己的工资、财产和债务变动情况,那通货膨胀的这种作用就能被视为另一种成本了。

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